Looking towards a post COVID-19 world

In episode two of our fortnightly COVID-19 webinar series, healthcare sector head, Dr Nick Cameron joined Jacob Mitchell to discuss the team’s latest observations on the pandemic and its investment implications. 

In this final highlight, Jacob Mitchell explains some factors investors should consider when looking towards the pandemic’s recovery phase. 

This webinar was recorded on 9 April, 2020. To view the full webinar, including comprehensive insights into where Antipodes sees compelling investment opportunities, click here.

You can register for upcoming webinars in the series here.

 

Episode 2 Part 3 – Transcript:

Jacob Mitchell:

Life as we know it won’t necessarily go back to the pre-COVID-19 status quo and in some ways we think the countries that have had to do less fiscal stimulus to achieve stability are probably in better shape coming out of this. 

It’s really quite stark that China has only announced the equivalent of 2% of GDP in stimulus, versus the 10% that has been announced in the US and in Europe. We think that gives China a lot of flexibility to deal with COVID-19 on a longer-term basis. 

The debt to GDP in the US, on the current trajectory, will potentially approach a level higher than what that economy experienced during the Second World War – that is historic. Now, we don’t know because maybe the US bounces back and the big deficits that have been forecast are too aggressive, but that is the current trajectory. 

Corporates will cut costs, they’ll use COVID-19 as an excuse to do lots of restructuring so employment may rebound less strong that many expect and attitudes towards business travel and maybe office demand will be permanently changed. 

The key thing to watch, I think, is house price deflation, especially in economies with high household debt – Australia, Canada, the Scandinavian economies.

And then it’s looking at changes in industry structure. Potentially in retail, you know, omnichannel survivors that have been hit hard can potentially emerge stronger. 

Market leadership may change, it’s time to start thinking about the recovery cluster. 

View the full webinar


This communication was prepared by Antipodes Partners Limited (ABN 29 602 042 035, AFSL 481 580) (Antipodes). Antipodes believes the information contained in this communication is based on reliable information, no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. This communication is for general information only and was prepared for multiple distribution and does not take account of the specific investment objectives of individual recipients and it may not be appropriate in all circumstances. Persons relying on this information should do so in light of their specific investment objectives and financial situations. Any person considering action on the basis of this communication must seek individual advice relevant to their particular circumstances and investment objectives. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Antipodes disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained on this website in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information.
Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Antipodes on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Information on this website is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained on the website is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Antipodes.
Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ABN 29 082 494 362 AFSL 238371 is the product issuer of funds managed by Antipodes.  Any potential investor should consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement available at www.antipodesonespartners.com when deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in a fund. The issuer is not licensed to provide financial product advice.  Please consult your financial adviser before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
16 April 2020
Antipodes